I came across an interesting book by Harry S. Dent, Jr called
“The Great Depression Ahead How to Prosper in the Crash Following the Greatest Boom in History”
Despite some extremely gloomy predictions Harry S. Dent believes as there were lots of millionaires who came out of the great depression so also there will be a lot of millionaires created from this one. But they need to make the right moves.
“Businesses that survive are going to dominate their markets. General Motors came out of the depression with a lead they never lost,” Dent said. Cash will be king. Companies that have liquidity will be the only ones to survive.
The analysis is based on demographic forecasting predicting economic cycles. Dent did predict Japan’s economic downturn in the 1990s and the U.S. economic boom in the late nineties. Demography is regarded as a major economic driver as it tends to predict retirement, level of innovation, productivity and spending of the population. Of course, that does not mean Dent’s gloomy predictions for our new future will be true.
Dent argues that the aging population in U.S. and Europe are contributors to the slowing growth and that eventually Asia will become the center of world economic activity. India more so than China. In the U.S. the “Baby Boomers spending cycle” basically ended in 2009 and Dent expects U.S. Housing prices to loose as much as 50% of their value as a result. The down turn is predicted to last till 2020, so get ready for the long haul.
Dent notes that technological advancements are also contributors to economic booms. This is encouraging as I think that alternative energy technology and mobile technology, the iPhone 3.0 release in particular will help make this “depression” far less worse than Dent predicts. The iPhone and similar devices will become as indispensable as a personal computer with a lot of offshoot technology produced as a result.
On the positive side, based on Dent’s cycles depressions occur only once every 80 years so thankfully our children will not have to live through another depression.
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About Danny Sheehan
Danny lives in Hong Kong but is originally from Australia. He is Married to Maggie and together they have two children with whom they enjoy sharing and enjoying an exciting life with daily. Danny's passions are freedom, adventure and discovery, mainly in nature and science but also spiritually. He is a great believer in living in the NOW.
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